Generating component forecast

In this page, you can generate the forecast for the components. Tell me more.

• Select the "Generate Forecast" link in the previous page, or click the hyperlinked planner group number in the multiline of the same page.

The "Generate Component Forecast" page appears.

The system displays the following:

The system displays the following fields in the "Forecast Criteria" group box:

This is the default option set in the "Set Options" activity.

• Enter the following field:

Note: If the expiry date for the component number (defined in the “Stock Maintenance” business component, based on the  shelf life defined for the part number in the "Part Administration" business component) falls between the forecast date range, then the component and the corresponding work units are stored for shell life expiry in the forecast log with job source as “Shell Life expiry”.

The system displays the following fields in the "Forecast Details" group box:

• Enter the following fields:

• Click the "Generate Forecast" pushbutton to generate the forecast.

Note: Forecast is generated for the appropriate part based on the option specified in the “Parent Removal” field in the Component Maintenance Program. If the “Parent Removal” field is specified as “Specific part”, then the system generates forecast for the part number entered. If the “Parent Removal” field is specified as “NHA”, then the system generates forecast for the next higher assembly of the part number entered. If the “Parent Removal” field is specified as “NHA-LRU”, then the system generates forecast for the next higher assembly which of ‘Line Replacement Unit’ of the part number entered. If the “Parent Removal” field is specified as “End Part”, then the system generates forecast for the part number at the highest level of configuration of the part number entered.

The system ensures that the component to be forecasted, is in “Active” status.

The system performs the following on clicking the "Generate Forecast" pushbutton:

Date - based forecasting

• The list of components associated with the planner group is identified. Forecasting is performed on all the components of the planner group.

• If the schedule type is "Actual Interval", or if the schedule type is "Fixed Date" and no value is entered in the "Last Performed Date" in the "Component Maintenance Program" business component, the system finds out the next scheduled date for all the maintenance type or work units associated with the component.

• If the next scheduled date is less than or equal to the forecast end date then the system retrieves the component number along with the work unit and maintenance type of the component which is due for maintenance.

Note: If the “Next schedule date” exceeds the “Terminating Date”, then the system will not retrieve the maintenance requirement of the component for forecast.

• It calculates the Earliest Scheduled Date as

ESD = Schedule Date -- Negative Tolerance

• It calculates the Lastest Scheduled Date as

LSD= Schedule Date + Positive Tolerance

• It calculates the Alert Date as

Alert Date= Schedule Date -- Alert Value (If the tolerance/alert value is  given in months / years, then the system will convert it into number of days ,and perform the calculation.)

• It stores the forecasted output, that is the component ID/work unit details along with the scheduled dates ,with the Job Source as "CMP".

If the alert date falls within the forecast horizon i.e. between the forecast start date and end date, the system forecasts the work units based on the calculated alert value even if the schedule date does not fall within the forecast horizon.

If both the next scheduled date and alert value are within the forecast horizon, then the system considers the next scheduled date, for forecast.

Re-forecasting of work units

• If any work unit is available in the component pending jobs tray with job status as "Pending" against a component and if the same component is re-forecasted in “Aircraft Maintenance Forecast” or “Component Maintenance Forecast”,  the system executes the forecast as re-forecasting and increments the re-forecast count. The system also updates the pending tray with the forecast number and reforecast count.

Note: The re-forecasting is performed for pending work units for which the schedule dates fall within the forecast horizon.

• For work units having job status as “Allocated”, the system increments the re-forecast count and updates the count in the re-forecast log.

Usage - based forecast

• If the component is attached to the aircraft, the system identifies the lead parameter and the usage value of the lead parameter for both the aircraft and the component from the "Aircraft" business component.

• If the usage- based schedule details are available for the component in the Component Maintenance Program and if the schedule type is "Recurring" or "One time", and there is no value entered in the "Last Performed Value", the system calculates the remaining usage parameter value. The remaining usage value is calculated for all the parameters of the component attached to the aircraft.

Note: If the “Next schedule date” exceeds the “Terminating Date”, then the system will not retrieve the maintenance requirement of the component for forecast.

Scheduled date of maintenance arising calculation:

The system calculates the scheduled date of maintenance arising as follows:

Remaining number of days = Remaining life in terms of parameters / average daily usage value of parameter

Average usage value of parameter calculation

• The average value of the lead parameter of the aircraft to which the forecasting component is attached can be taken as the average usage value. This is possible only when the forecasting parameter and the lead parameter of the aircraft are the same.

• If the lead parameter is different from the forecasting parameter, then the average value of the given parameter of the component is retrieved from the "Create Component Record" activity of the "Aircraft" business component.

• If any forecast factor is specified in the "Aircraft" business component for the forecasting component, then the forecast factor is converted into an average value.

Average value = Forecast factor * average value for the lead parameter.

Position - Based Forecasting

Position- based schedule forecasting has to be executed only if the component is attached to the aircraft and the position in which the component is attached has its schedule defined in the "Component Maintenance Program".

• If position - based schedules are available for a position to which the  component is fitted, then the system ascertains the scheduled date, latest/earliest/alert dates for the maintenance arising.

• If date - based schedule information is available for the attached  position, then "Next scheduled date" for all the maintenance type/work units associated with  the component in the Component Maintenance Program is ascertained.

Note: The next scheduled date and alert dates are calculated as done for usage - based forecasting.

Forecast based on deferment log

• The system calculates the scheduled date/alert date from the forecasted output for the given component. It identifies the deferral details from the deferment request in the "Authorized" status for the all component-maintenance type from the deferment log, for example the number of days it is deferred and the alert value in terms of days.

• If the sum of the scheduled date and the number of days it is deferred is less than the Forecast End Date, then the system stores the component –cum- maintenance type in the forecast log with the job status as "Pending" and the job source as "Deferral"

• In the usage- based deferrals, if the scheduled date is less than the alert date, then the system stores the work unit / component – cum - maintenance type into the forecast log with the job source as "Deferral".

Shelf Life calculation

• The remaining shelf life for the components which are not attached with the aircraft is calculated as follows:

Remaining Shelf Life = Design Shelf Life – (Difference between the date in which component came into the warehouse and the forecast end date)

• If the Remaining Shelf Life is less than or equal to zero, then the component and corresponding work unit identified in the CMP for shelf life expiry is updated with job source "Shelf life expiry"

• If the remaining shelf life is less than or equal to the alert value, then the schedule date and alert dates are calculated as follows:

• Schedule date: The remaining shelf life (in terms of days) is calculated and subtracted from the forecat end date. This is done when the remaining shelf life is negative. If the remaining shelf life is positive, then it is added to the forecast end date and schedule date is obtained.

• Alert date:-The difference between the alert value and the remaining shelf life is calculated. The value is converted into number of days and subtracted from the forecast end date.

• The work unit and the component – cum – maintenance type is updated with job source “Shelf Life Expiry”.

• If the expiry date of a component (as defined in the “Stock Maintenance” business component) is lesser than the forecast date, then the component and the corresponding work units added in the forecast log of the component, which are identified in the CMP  with job source as "Shelf life expiry".

Opportunity Maintenance Job forecasting

• If any opportunity work units are defined for the component and maintenance type combination in the “Visit Package” business component, those work units are identified.

• The work units are then added to the forecast.

• If the maintenance arising is of higher level maintenance type such as “Overhaul”, then the lower level opportunity checks of type “Inspection”,”Repair” or ”Shop Visit” can be attached to the work unit. The order of the work units will be [OVERHAUL - REPAIR - INSPECTION - SHOP VISIT].

• The system considers the minimum schedule date among the maintenance types as the schedule date for all the opportunity work units.

Status of forecast and work units

• The forecast status is updated as “Fresh”. If you have checked “Release Forecast” box, then the system sets the status to “Released”.

• The job status of work unit is set as “Pending”, if the forecast is released.

• The work units/tasks included in the forecast are transferred to the pending tray for execution at the scheduled time.

• If there are pending work units (defined in CMP as “shelf life expiry”) for a component (i.e. the next schedule date is earlier than the forecast start date), the system stores these components and the correspondng work units in the forecast log with the job source as “Shelf Life Expiry”.

• If the component is attached to aircraft and has off-wing jobs, then the system sets the “Removal Status” as “Pending” for the work units of the parts that have to be removed.

Component wise summary

The system gives a component wise summary of the maintenance arising on the component. The system identifies ATA wise component numbers. If the component is attached to an aircraft, the ATA attached to the position is taken into consideration. Otherwise, the ATA attached to the part number or component ID is taken into account.

The system displays the following in the "Summary Of Component Arising" multiline:

To proceed, carry out the following:

• Select the "View Forecast Details" link at the bottom of the page to view the forecast details.

• Select the "View Planner Group Details" link at the bottom of the page to view the planner group details.

Generating component forecast - An overview

In this page, you can generate the forecast for the components for which the maintenance arisings must be ascertained.

You can create a forecast with a unique number based on the numbering type selected.

Forecast dates

Forecast start date will be the next date to the previous forecast's end date. If the previous forecast is not available, the system sets the initial start date set in the "Set Options" activity as the forecast start date.

Forecast end date is the finishing date of the forecast. This is obtained by adding the default horizon set in "Set Options" activity to the forecast start date.

The system creates the forecast according to the conditions specified for the component in the "Component Maintenance Program" business component. The forecasting can be one of the following types:

• Date-based forecasting - For more details refer to the section "Date-Based Forecasting".

• Usage-based forecasting - For more details refer to the section "Usage-Based Forecasting".

• Position-based forecasting - For more details refer to the section "Position-Based Forecasting".

• Deferment log-based forecasting - For more details refer to the section "Forecast based on deferment log".

• Shelf life based forecasting – For more details refer to the section “Shelf Life based Calculation”.

• Opportunity maintenance job forecasting - For more details refer to the section “Opportunity maintenance job forecasting”.

The system creates the forecast and enters the forecast details into the forecast log. It identifies the components for which the forecasting is done according to the ATA chapters. The system displays the ATA chapter wise summary of the maintenance raisings.