Aircraft Maintenance Forecast -An Overview

The Aircraft Maintenance Forecast business component forecasts the scheduled maintenance activity for a sub fleet. An Airline typically operates a fleet of aircraft comprising of a mix of different models belonging to different manufacturers. Aircrafts are mostly  are grouped based on their utilization to form a Sub Fleet. These aircraft pertaining to a sub fleet have to be maintained strictly in accordance with the guidelines / procedures laid down by the aircraft manufacturer which are duly ratified by the airworthiness authorities of the country of manufacture and the country in which the aircraft are registered.

This business component enables the planner to forecast the maintenance activities that are due on an aircraft, to ensure the continued serviceability of the aircraft and its systems. This forecast enables one to plan in advance for material and resources such as skills, facilities and equipment requirements. This will eventually help in forecasting maintenance costs in terms of manpower requirements, budgetary estimates, material and labor costs and also form the basis for decisions on outsourcing and development of in-house facilities.

Sub Fleet

The fleet size of an airline is the number of aircraft contained in the Airline. The utilization of the aircraft will vary from one another depending on their usage. The logical grouping of aircraft whose utilization is fairly constant with a distinct identity forms a Sub Fleet. Forecasting is done at a Sub Fleet level.

Sub Fleet Utilization

Utilization is the average usage of an aircraft of the sub fleet. Aircraft(s) are grouped to form a sub fleet based on their utilization, and hence the utilization value of the sub Fleet is inherited to all the aircraft of the sub fleet. It is only based on the utilization value the actual scheduled dates are forecasted. Hence utilization is of high importance and it becomes mandatory to aircraft groups whose utilization remains fairly constant so that the forecast is accurate. Utilization should be defined for one year, and sessions can be defined with in the one-year span if the utilization varies. Utilization can also be computed automatically based on the historical data available. The various computation methods for calculating utilization value are Simple Average Method, Simple Moving Average Method, Weighted Average Method and Weighted Moving Average Method.

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